Movie time! As I said in my previous article about the Golden Globes 2018, television will be a lot easier to predict this year than movies. There have been a bunch of film critics circles and smaller awards shows so far, but a lot of movies keep walking away with the top prize. So the Globes are going to set a big precedent as we gear up for the SAGs and finally, the Oscars. Let’s see if I can get at least one right in my predictions!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is arguably one of the toughest categories to predict. You can make a case for all of these films. I’m serious. They have all won best pictures awards this awards season. I’m trying to look for clues as to see where the voters are leaning. In recent years, this award has been going to smaller, indie movies that have been critically acclaimed such as Moonlight and Boyhood. Because they have the most nominations, I’m going with The Shape of Water despite rooting for Dunkirk.
Who Should Win: Dunkirk
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman
A phrase that I will use a lot in this post. “Two horse race.” This is a two horse race between Lady Bird and Get Out. Two entirely different films. Lady Bird was a nice, enjoyable coming of age film about a young girl who rebels and wants to leave her town after high school. Get Out is the horror film with comedic undertones (had to squeeze that in there) that in my opinion, is one of the most original pieces of satire I have ever seen. Get Out should win this, but Lady Bird has even more critical acclaim than Get Out. Plus, I’m a big believer in recency bias. Get Out seemed like it came out 10 years ago. Is it still fresh in the minds of voters? Not sure.
Who Should Win: Get Out
Who Will Win: Lady Bird
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Very strong field of actresses. In fact, two out of 5 will get shut out for an Oscar nomination thanks to Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie. There were three good performances by Streep, Chastain, and Williams. However, the two GREAT performances were Hawkins and McDormand. Hawkins didn’t speak one word (besides her dream sequence) and was able to convey so much emotion in a moving performance. However, ever since I saw Three Billboards, my vote for best actress has been Frances McDormand. Holy shit. What an amazing performance. She was a badass mother who was struggling to cope on the inside about the brutal death of her daughter. McDormand should and will win this award.
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
I wish I could give good arguments as to why someone can beat Gary Oldman. I just can’t think of any. Gary Oldman will win this award. If he were to lose, it wouldn’t have anything to do with his performance. Oldman once called the Golden Globes “bent and fixed.” Will voters hold a grudge against him?
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Two horse race! Robbie vs. Ronan. When I first saw that Margot Robbie was going to play Tonya Harding, shocked was an understatement. However, after her exhilarating and captivating performance, it turns out the egg is on my head. If she wins tonight, I would not be surprised whatsoever. However, my pick is Saoirse Ronan. This is my girl and I’m standing by her. Despite being a (manly) man, Ronan’s performance as Lady Bird was so relatable. Growing up with problems in the household, struggling with acceptance, and going to college were all things that I felt I and the rest of the audience could relate to and that’s exactly what happened. Ireland for the win.
Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan or Margot Robbie (Would not be upset either way)
Who Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Two horse…forget it. But it is. Kaluuya vs. Franco. If there was a Best Newcomer or Best New Actor, Kaluuya would win in. However, Franco’s performance as Tommy Wiseau was spectacular. Who knew that making a movie about the worst movie ever made would be such an inspiring movie? From the accent and expressions to his physical characteristics, Franco not only became Wiseau, he was Wiseau. I’m pulling for Franco to get an Oscar nomination as well, but he should walk away with the hardware tonight.
Who Should Win: James Franco
Who Will Win: James Franco
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Supporting races are always tough to call. Unless there is a no questions asked winner like Viola Davis last year, they are always hard to predict. A lot of the time, the winner of supporting at the Globes won’t win supporting at the Oscars. I think that is exactly the case this year. Allison Janney should have an awards show to herself at this point. She has 7 Emmy wins, but 0 Globe wins despite having 6 previous nominations. I think she wins tonight for her compelling performance as a foul mouthed mother who pushed her daughter to the edge in order to make her a winner. If I had a vote, I’m giving it to Laurie Metcalf. The mother daughter relationship she had with Ronan was so believable and relatable that after talking with girls who saw the film, they all saw themselves on screen. Metcalf gets her revenge at the Oscars.
Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Who Will Win: Allison Janney
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Another too close to call race. My vote is for Willem Dafoe in the Florida Project. What a sad but true look into the impoverished world outside of Disney. The kids stole the show, but Dafoe’s role of the tough but understanding general manager of the motel was the glue that made the Florida Project one to remember. I think he will win the Oscar, but my pick for tonight did not film his scenes until 2 months ago. My pick is Christopher Plummer. I think the backstory of how and why he took the role is going to go a long way with critics. Upset win for Plummer.
Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
DUNKIRK NEEDS TO GET RECOGNITION. It very well might be my favorite film of the year and it might get shut out tonight. I firmly believe that Chris Nolan is one of the five best directors on the planet right now. Dunkirk was such an original and new take on a war movie and as always, it had that Chris Nolan “twist” that took you by surprise. Unfortunately, I think Dunkirk has lost a lot of steam with voters. My pick for tonight is Guillermo del Toro for his visually appealing Shape of Water.
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Why wasn’t Get Out or Call Me By Your Name in this category? I’ll leave it at that. Greta Gerwig for the win.
Who Should Win: Jordan Peele for Get Out
Who Will Win: Greta Gerwig
Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Boss Baby
Don’t bet against Disney. They rarely lose. Rarely. Bet on Coco.
Who Should Win: Coco
Who Will Win: Coco
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
I haven’t seen any of these. However, Elisabeth Moss is in The Square. She always wins.
Who Should Win: The Square
Who Will Win: The Square
Best Original Score
Alexander Desplat, The Shape of Water
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
I mean Hans Zimmer is the GOAT.
Who Should Win: Hans Zimmer
Who Will Win: Hans Zimmer
Best Original Song
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Remember Me,” Coco
“The Star,” The Star
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
I didn’t see the The Greatest Showman, but that soundtrack is FIRE. I think Coco wins, but Pasek and Paul are gods.
Who Should Win: “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
Who Will Win:”Remember Me,” Coco
Enjoy the Globes!