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SAG Awards 2018: Predictions

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The next major awards show on the circuit is the SAG Awards, which you can watch tonight at 8 PM EST on TNT and TBS. For those who are not familiar, the SAGs are voted on by members of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. What? This is the group that represents actors, journalists, radio and television personalities, singers, etc. I look at it as entertainers voting for other entertainers, hence why the actual physical award is called the “actor.”  The SAG Awards are not so cut and dry. Like any awards show, you have your locks and you have your surprises. The Best Cast award is always tough to call because it is necessarily not given to the best movie. However, the nominations tell a lot about Oscars nominations, which arrive on Tuesday.

Let’s get into the predictions. Just like the Golden Globes, film AND television are honored.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Gary Oldman has been a lock since August. However, I’ve heard from some critics that his lock at the Oscars is slowly starting to become less clear because of his past sexual assault allegations. Oldman wins tonight because he is spectacular as Winston Churchill, but keep an eye on Timothee Chalamet these next couple of weeks. If Timmy campaigns more than expected, that might solidify the fact that his camp believes he has a shot. We could have a race for Best Actor.

Who Should Win: Gary Oldman
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Ladies and gentlemen, four of these women will be nominated for an Oscar: Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, and Ronan. The 5th spot will eventually go to the GOAT of all GOATs, Meryl Streep. That being said, McDormand has my vote. Out of all the performances, McDormand’s has been the most powerful, impactful, and memorable for me. No complaints if any of these women win. Very strong field.

Who Should Win: Frances McDormand
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson,”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Dafoe vs. Rockwell. Rockwell vs. Dafoe. Dafoe has won with the critics. Dafoe cleaned up with every critics society and association. Rockwell has picked up the flashier awards at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. It really depends on which character you preferred. Dafoe is the unsung hero while Rockwell is the antihero. Because of the recent run for Three Billboards, Rockwell is going to win tonight, but I still think Dafoe can win this at the Oscars.

Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Two horse races in both supporting categories. Janney vs. Metcalf. Just like Dafoe, Metcalf was winning awards left and right with critics societies and associations. However, Janney has come on strong with big wins at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards. I really don’t know again. I’m fine with either one winning. I have this feeling that Lady Bird is going to win the Best Cast and for that reason, I’m going with Metcalf in this category.

Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf / Allison Janney
Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Mudbound”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

First of all, congratulations to the Big Sick for finally getting some love in a major awards show. It was one of the funniest movies of the year. This will come down to Lady Bird and Three Billboards. Three Billboards seems like the movie that has stuck with critics the most, but Lady Bird is the coming of age, feel-good movie of the year. Voters will see it that way so get ready for another emotional Greta Gerwig speech.

Who Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Will Win: Lady Bird

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk”
“Logan”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
“Wonder Woman”

Who Should Win: Dunkirk
Who Will Win: Dunkirk

I would like to start the hashtag, #JusticeForDunkirk. My top movie of the year is now an afterthought. Fine, you want to criticize it for not resonating with people or having little dialogue, ok, I’ll listen. However, Dunkirk was a technical and visual masterpiece. Show it some love.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries:
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock”
Jeff Daniels, “Godless”
Robert De Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”
Alexander Skarsgard, “Big Little Lies”

Will Big Little Lies impressive streak continue or does someone new come into the fold? A lot of experts are picking Robert De Niro to beat Alexander Skarsgard in this category. If we’re getting super technical, Skarsgard was more of a supporting actor despite his thought-provoking performance. Plus, losing to Robert De Niro is definitely not the worst thing in the world.

Who Should Win: Alexander Skarsgard
Who Will Win: Robert De Niro

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries:
Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
Jessica Lange, “Feud: Bette & Joan”
Susan Sarandon, “Feud: Bette & Joan”
Reese Witherspoon, “Big Little Lies”

Let’s save you time. “And the actor goes to…Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies.” Side note: I enjoyed Reese Witherspoon’s performance more than Kidman’s. Kidman was awesome, don’t get me wrong, but the backbone of the show (for me) was Witherspoon.

Who Should Win: Reese Witherspoon
Who Will Win: Nicole Kidman

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

TV is a lot easier to predict. “And the actor goes to… Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us.” Randall, Randall, Randall. What an awards season. Bravo.

Who Should Win: Sterling K. Brown
Who Will Win: Sterling K. Brown

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series:
Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things”
Claire Foy, “The Crown”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Elisabeth Moss is the best female actor on television and it’s close between her and Sterling K. Brown for THE best actor on television. I cannot wait for the Handmaid’s Tale to come back this year.

Who Should Win: Elisabeth Moss
Who Will Win: Elisabeth Moss

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Sean Hayes, “Will & Grace”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Marc Maron, “GLOW”

Ok, I lied. TV is not that easy to predict. I wouldn’t call this category up-in-the-air, but experience is going to matter. William H. Macy and Sean Hayes have both won multiple times for this award. I’m an honest man so I will say that I don’t watch Shameless or Will and Grace. I am going to go with more SAG Awards so Sean Hayes is the pick.

Who Should Win: Larry David
Who Will Win: Sean Hayes

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Uzo Aduba, “Orange Is the New Black”
Alison Brie, “GLOW”
Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”

It’s been a combination of Uzo Aduba and Julia Louis-Dreyfus that past four years. Who takes it home this year? I’m going with Louis-Dreyfus to add her 1,000 award to her trophy case especially because it resonates so well with the current political climate. If I had to pick a dark horse, it would be Alison Brie for making women’s wrestling funny and relatable.

Who Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”
“This Is Us”

These five shows are all top dogs and as a whole, much stronger than the five films in the cast category. This Is Us, Stranger Things, and Game Of Thrones are all some of my favorite shows on television and they all are coming off successful seasons. So it comes down to The Crown and The Handmaid’s Tale. The Crown won last year and although it had a solid Season 2, every show is playing for second behind The Handmaid’s Tale. The HT was original, captivating, and something I have never seen before. A much deserved win.

Who Should Win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Will Win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
“Black-ish”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“GLOW”
“Orange is the New Black”
“Veep”

Going to trust the “experts” on this one. Gun to my head, I’d learn towards Veep just because it consistently puts out the funniest episodes on a weekly basis. However, GLOW received four nominations and they can’t go home empty handed. Streaming services dominate tonight as GLOW gets the upset win.

Who Should Win: Veep
Who Will Win: GLOW

Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
“Game of Thrones” 
“GLOW”
“Stranger Things”
“The Walking Dead”
“Homeland”

Dragons, white walkers, and epic battles. Game of Thrones in a landslide.

Who Should Win: Game of Thrones
Who Will Win: Game of Thrones

Enjoy the SAG Awards. Tune into the Oscar Nominations this Tuesday morning. I’ll have instant reactions after they come out so stay tuned!

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