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Gamblin’ With Gos: World Cup Day 7

Day 6 Recap

So…that was bad, huh? On the day where everything seemed like a trap or too good to be true it…was. Hand up, that’s on me. Anyways, we’re on to Cincinnati (Day 7), where the games become a lot more predictable. In theory at least. Happy Wednesday – Hedgeday.

Colombia 1-2 Japan: Colombia were largely the better team, but were handicapped from the beginning with a red card and subsequent penalty kick. They got back in it with a free-kick but ultimately couldn’t hold on to the point. Credit where credit is due though, Japan came to play and they capitalized on the Colombians mistakes.

Senegal 2-1 Poland: Good news! I DID take Senegal to make it out of the group! Bad news! I took them to draw 2-2 yesterday. Poland was exactly what we thought they were, which was totally rudderless without Robert Lewandowski on the score sheet and running the show. Senegal played an awesome game and totally deserved the 3 points, despite getting a little bit of help from Bizarro Ref World (also, anybody mad at Senegal is totally off base. They did nothing wrong and followed the rules. It’s the ref who MAYBE shouldn’t have let Niang back on the field, but even then it’s tough as Poland had full possession of the ball and he couldn’t have predicted the long back pass).

Russia 3-1 Egypt: I was totally wrong about Egypt. Salah not being at 100% hurt but the Egyptians were just totally outclassed. The Russians were the better team and deserve to go through to the next round. As for Egypt, we can only hope it’s not another quarter of a century before their next World Cup.

 

Day 7 Picks

Portugal (-1) vs. Morocco (+1)

Portugal Win: -155

Draw: +255

Morocco Win: +500

o/u: 2.5

Fun Prop Bet Of The Match: Halftime/Full Time – Morocco/Draw (+1600)

I’m going to go out of my way and say that a lot of my picks today are the obvious ones, and when I try to go out on a limb just to shake things up, I’ll let you know. This is one of those times. Portugal are a great side who seem to play up or down to their competition more than anyone in the world. Doubting Ronaldo in a big tournament is literally the dumbest thing you can do at the moment. I *think* Portugal will sneak one out via another late goal (in which case you’re going to want to take Portugal 2-1). But something in my gut tells me Morocco will have to attack and Portugal will mostly stick to the counter-attacking system that won them Euro 2016. Official Prediction: Give me a 1-1 draw.

Uruguay (-2) vs. Saudi Arabia (+2)

Uruguay Win: -530

Draw: +520

Saudi Arabia Win: +1650

o/u: 3

Fun Prop Bet Of The Match: Exactly 2 Goals Scored In The First Half (+260)

Safe Prop Bet Of The Match: Edinson Cavani Anytime Scorer (-185)

The spread has been fluctuating between 2 and 2.5 over the last day or so, so if you can find it at 2 I suggest you pull the trigger. The Uruguay attack gets to feast on the Saudi Arabian defense, which barely put up a fight against their Russian hosts last week. Now, will they lose by 5 again? Unlikely. And this is so lopsided it almost makes me hesitate to pick Uruguay by more than a goal. But…again, they just got 5 shipped past them. When the best thing you can say about a team is, “They literally couldn’t look worse if they tried” it’s usually a bad thing. That’s hard to look past even if it was a minor aberration. Uruguay wins 3-0.

Iran (+1.5) vs. Spain (-1.5)

Iran Win: +1400

Draw: +520

Spain Win: -500

o/u: 2.5

Fun Prop Bet Of The Match: Spain Win AND Both Teams Score (+325)

I guess my prop bet kind of gives away my pick here, but this should not be as lopsided as you think. Iran nabbed an impressive win against Morocco and will be fighting hard to hold on to their spot at the top of the group. They will fight and they will make things hard on the Spanish, but at the end of the day I think Spain gets the goals they need, knowing that a draw or loss would likely leave them vulnerable (depending on the Portugal vs. Morocco result). Spain wins 2-1.

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